人民币汇率升值对进出口贸易的影响

人民币汇率升值对进出口贸易的影响
摘要：汇率作为一国货币与另一国货币的兑换比率，是实现一国经济内部和外部均衡的重要工具，也是调节国际经济竞争关系最直接、最有效的手段。我国分别于1994年1月1日和2005年7月21日进行了汇率改革。经过两次汇率制度的改革，人民币汇率愈加市场化，弹性也不断增加。截止2010年底人民币汇率较2005年7月21日以累计升值超过18.37%，人民币进入了升值的时代，并且在今后几年仍将保持升值的趋势。本文利用1994—2010年汇率及进出口贸易变动的数据，分析汇率的升值是否按照传统理论给进出口带来影响。文章发现1994年以来汇率升值对我国进出口贸易影响甚微，汇率升值仍在我国比较优势容许范围内。

关键词：人民币汇率；汇率升值；进出口贸易；影响

The Impact of Rises in RMB Exchange Rate on Import and Export Trade

Abstract：Exchange rate，as the ratio at which one currency can be converted into another currency, is an important instrument for achieving the internal and external balance of an economy．And it also is the most direct and most effective means of regulating the international economic competition relationship. Our country carried on the exchange rate system reform in January 1, and July 21, 2005. From then on the exchange rate becomes more market-oriented and its flexibility is also increasing. By the end of 2010, the exchange rate of RMB is 18.37% higher than that of July 21, 2005, that is to say, we have walked into the era of RMB appreciation, and this will be the tendency of the next few years. This study examines whether the appreciation of exchange rate impact China’s import and export trade in the way of traditional theory or not. Article found that the appreciation of exchange rate since the year of 1994 has little effect on our import and export trade, and the appreciation is still in the allowance of our comparative advantage.

Key words：RMB exchange rate; appreciation; international trade; impact
目  录

1  引  言 1
2  相关文献及研究思路 2
2.1  相关文献 2
2.2  研究思路 3
3  人民币汇率变动和进出口贸易情况回顾 3
3.1  人民币汇率变动回顾 3
3.1.1  1994-2005汇率变动 3
3.1.2  2005.7-2010汇率变动 4
3.2  进出口贸易情况的回顾 6
3.2.1  进出口贸易额逐年升高 6
3.2.2  外贸依存度逐年升高 8
3.2.3  出口商品结构改善 9
4  人民币汇率变动对进出口贸易影响分析 11
4.1  1994—2005年汇率变动对进出口影响 11
4.2  2005年7月—2010年汇率变动对进出口影响 14
4.3  汇率变动对出口商品结构的影响 17
5  总结 17
参考文献 19

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