近年来巨灾风险造成的重大经济损失已成为全球最为严重的问题之一，
建立巨灾风险保险体系也已成为国家和社会各界关注的课题。本论文从研究我国现行的巨灾防范保障制度入手，通过对台湾、美国等已建立的巨灾保险体系学习，简述ART技术的简单原理，最后基于台湾地震保险体系，设想出一个简易的巨灾分摊模型，并以汶川地震中的房屋财产损失作为基数对模型进行检验。利用理论和案例双重分析方法，探讨建立我国巨灾保险体系的模型。
关键词：巨灾保险，台湾地震保险，ART技术，汶川地震损失
ABSTRACT
In the recent years, enormous economic losses caused by catastrophic risk have become one of the most serious problems in the world. The establishment of catastrophic risk insurance system has also become a topic of our community. The introductory portion of this thesis tells the necessity of building catastrophic risk insurance system over the national wide. It starts from the exsiting security system to guard against the catastrophic losses. Then, through the relatively perfect systems of Taiwan, the United States, etc. and the simple principle of ART technology, a summary of the giant disaster-sharing model is assumed, based on the Taiwan earthquake insurance system. At last, the model is tested by using the Wenchuan earthquake damage datas. This thesis is to explore our country set up the model of catastrophic insurance system by dual-using of theory and case analysis.
Key Words: Catastrophic insurance, Taiwan earthquake insurance, ART technology, Wenchuan earthquake losses.
目 录
摘要（本论文范文的论文综述）…………………………………………………………………………………… 2
ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………… 3
1 引言………………………………………………………………………………… 4
2 我国巨灾风险保障机制的现状分析……………………………………………… 4
2.1我国巨灾风险的特点与趋势……………………………………………… 4
2.2我国当前的巨灾风险管理模式…………………………………………… 6
2.3我国构建巨灾保险体系的必要性………………………………………… 6
3巨灾保险体系与巨灾风险管理的实例分析……………………………………… 6
3.1台湾地震风险的分散机制………………………………………………… 6
3.2美国巨灾保险的管理模式………………………………………………… 8
3.3美国9.11事件的损失分摊分析…………………………………………… 8
3.4巨灾管理的经验总结及其启示…………………………………………… 9
4基于ART技术构建我国巨灾保险体系的设想…………………………………… 10
4.1 ART技术与巨灾风险管理………………………………………………… 10
4.1.1巨灾债券……………………………………………………………… 10
4.1.2巨灾期权……………………………………………………………… 11
4.1.3巨灾期货……………………………………………………………… 11
4.2我国巨灾风险证券化的可行性分析……………………………………… 12
4.3我国巨灾保险体系的设计思路…………………………………………… 12
5我国巨灾保险体系的损失分摊：以汶川地震为例………………………………… 14
5.1汶川地震的各类损失统计………………………………………………… 14
5.2巨灾保险体系的损失分摊模型…………………………………………… 15
5.3分摊后损失分布情况分析………………………………………………… 16
6 结束语……………………………………………………………………………… 16
参考文献……………………………………………………………………………… 18
致谢…………………………………………………………………………………… 19
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