湖南省人口预测模型

湖南省人口预测模型
内容摘要

本文用灰色GM(1,1)模型对湖南省中长期人口趋势这个复杂的社会现象加以定量研究，并给出了预测和分析结果。对于不同时期的预测，模型的精度要求是不同的。为克服传统的灰色模型精度不高而无法满足对湖南省人口做出准确的中长期预测的问题，本文从各年净增人口序列建模,优化了GM(1,1)模型的背景值,并根据灰色系统理论的新信息优先原理和最少信息原理，以 为初始条件建立了改进的GM模型。最后，对模型改进前后进行了对比。

关键词

人口预测；曲线拟合； 灰色预测GM(1,1)模型；微分方程

ABSTRACT

This paper uses grey model GM(1.1) to study the complicated social situation, long-term population trend in Hunan province, and work out the projection and analytical the result.With the population prediction in different time, the requirement of model precision is also different.To overcome the low precision of traditional grey model that can’t make correct long-term projection of Hunan province population, this article makes model by the population pure increases sequence each year, optimizes the background value GM(1,1) model. What’s more, according to the grey system theory of recent information first principle and the least information principle, the writer makes   for the initial condition to establishing the improvement GM model. Finally, we have carried on the contrast to the model improvement around.

KEY WORDS

Population prediction; The curve fitting；Grew GM (1,1) model；Differential equation

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