运用德尔菲法辨识电子政务IT外包风险

运用德尔菲法辨识电子政务IT外包风险
摘  要

电子政务在许多发达国家都已进入相对成熟的发展期,我国在这方面的起步较晚,目前还处于分阶段的战略实施阶段。电子政务将政府的管理和服务借助信息化手段集成,实现更高效、更廉洁务实的政府监管和服务。虽然信息时代使电子政务IT外包迅速发展，但现实中也不乏失败的案例，IT外包的失败主要是受到了风险的阻碍，因此在对IT外包的研究中，对风险的研究越来越多，而在风险研究中风险因素的辨识是很重要的一个环节。本文在总结国内外对IT外包服务的风险因素理论分析的基础上，探究了如何运用德尔菲这一预测方法，帮助企业和政府识别外包服务中的风险因素，由于德尔菲法具有匿名性、反馈性、科学性和统计性等特点，使它在诸多判断预测或决策手段中脱颖而出，这种方法的优点主要是简便易行，具有一定科学性和实用性，可以避免会议讨论时产生的害怕权威随声附和，或固执己见，或因顾虑情面不愿与他人意见冲突等弊病；同时也可以使大家发表的意见较快收效，参加者也易接受结论，有一定程度综合意见的客观性。
经过四个阶段，通过专家组的集思广益和调查小组的归纳总结，全方位地为组织辨识风险，最终取得一致意见，锁定关键风险因素，保证了风险管理和风险控制的针对性和精确性。本文在德尔菲调查结果的基础上，对风险因素进行了进一步总结，得到了四大关键问题，更有助于识别风险因素，并针对不同的风险因素采取相应的措施进行预防和控制。

关键词： 电子政务IT外包服务；政府部门；服务商；风险因素；德尔菲

ABSTRACT

E-government has been developed relatively mature in many developed countries. China started fairly late in this respect, and it is still at the stage of strategic in the implementation stage. E-government make the government's management and service integrated by means of information technology to achieve the target of more efficient and clean pragmatic government regulation and service. Although the electronic information age lead to the rapid development of IT outsourcing, there are lots of fail cases in reality. The failure of IT outsourcing is largely because the risk of IT outsourcing, so there are more and more research about the risk in the study of IT outsourcing. To identify the risk is a very important part of risk research. On the basis of summing up the theoretical analysis about the risk of IT outsourcing services, this article studys how to use Delphi to help business and government outsourcing service identify the risk factors in IT outsourcing service. Because Delphi has the characteristics of anonymous , feedback, scientific and statistical nature,it is better than many other decision means.The virtue of Delphi is simple,and it’s scientific and practical, so it can avoid someone being fear of the authority at the meeting, at the meantime, participants will be more like to accept the conclusion.
After the four stages,  the experts put their heads together and investigation team summarize all the results to identify the risks comprehensively for the organization.At last they reach an agreement and lock the key risk to guarantee the pertinence and precision of the management and control of risk in e-government IT outsourcing. On the basis of findings from Delphi, this article make a further review and find four key problems.This is more useful for people to identify risk factors, furthermore people can take appropriate measures to prevent and control the various risk factors.

Keywords:  E-government IT outsourcing ; Government department ; Survice provider ; Risk factors ; Delphi

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