积极财政政策应对经济危机的有效性分析——以政府四万亿投入拉动内需为例
积极财政政策应对经济危机的有效性分析——以政府四万亿投入拉动内需为例
【摘要】2008年经济危机造成国外经济萧条，我国以出口拉动内需的形式也受到了重创。因此针对这一严峻形势，我国从依靠投资、出口拉动内需的手段向依靠投资、出口，消费三驾马车齐动转变。但即使是十七届三中全会后，农民发展农业规模可以得到扩大，也都无法对是否真正增加农民收入有一个明确的保证。这也意意味着在增加消费环节上无法按既定目标实行。于是政府通过增加政府支出，投入四万亿建设民生工程来拉动内需，增加大众消费能力。然而问题又出现在政府和投资这两个词眼本身。“政府”不是经济主体，不能做好理性经济人的角色，“投资”会产生挤出效应以及乘数效应。前者会减少私人投资，而后者虽可以引起产业效应以扩大就业和增加百姓收入，但这个效应相对于消费券来说也许不够大。于是积极财政政策之政府投资四万亿的有效性引起了业内外人士的广泛关注，纷纷提出了各自的意见。不少经济学家、大众媒体、公众给予了肯定与反对的声音，以至于本文得以从其意见中提出了消费券、带薪长假、储蓄国债三个相应的替代措施，并对其比较政府投资的有效性进行客观分析。
【关键词】 政府投入；拉动内需；财政政策；消费券；带薪假期；储蓄国债
The feasibility analysis of government 4 trillion yuan in stimulating domestic demand
【Abstract】Since economic crisis trigged and world economic began to recess. In 2008，China relies on exports stimulating domestic demand has been hurt. In terms of this serious condition, we government turn to the dependence of investment,export and consumption.in stimulating.However, developments of agriculture-scale farmers can be expanded after the Third Plenary Session of 17, wheather farmers can increase their income are not given guarantee. That means it will not be sure consumption can be increased in accordance with plan.therefore, government undertakes in investing infrastructures for stimulating domestic demand and increasing ability of consumption of citizen through expanding fiscal policy. nevertheless problem emerge from the word “government” and “investment”.first, government is not a leading actor in economic so that it can be suitable to do well in inverstment.second,”investment”will trigger crowding-out effect which will reduce private investment and multiplier effect which is not big enough to stimulate domestic demand, though it can trigger industrial effect for job and consumption enlargement., at least for the contrast of consumption voucher. Then the proactive fiscal policy accepts much concern and comment on it. There are a lot of economics and mass media are its proponent. But it also receives suspicion from many citizens.anyway, as following,we make an example of consumption vountor, paid holiday, saving bonds to be alternative policy in the position of not high utility of government investment. Then give it an objective analysis.
【Keywords】Government Investment；Stimulate Domestic Demand；Fiscal Policy；Consumption Vouchor； Paid Holidays；Saving Bonds
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