对我国减税政策的经济效应分析
对我国减税政策的经济效应分析
摘 要：税收政策作为国家经济政策的重要组成部分 ,作为政府宏观经济调控的重要手段 ,具有其他政策手段不可替代的作用。本文结合2009年国家统计局公布的最新经济数据对减税的利弊进行了分析，认为减税政策的可行性及效应受到一系列因素综合制约。从而，选取了浙江1991年到2007年的经济数据，运用普通最小二乘法对其宏观税负率与GDP做了回归分析，得出宏观税负率与GDP成正比，即较低的宏观税负对应着较低的经济增长幅度，并认为影响GDP增长的因素越来越多样化，而税收对GDP的影响也变得越来越小。因此，在这种情况下，与其研究如何减税不如研究如何用税才是当前最重要的选择。
关键词：减税，宏观税负，用税， CPI, PPI
On China's economic effects of tax policy analysis
Abstract：Tax policy，as a an important component of national economic policy ，as an important means of macroeconomic regulation and control, plays an irreplaceable role, comparing with other policy instruments. In this paper, it analysis the advantages and disadvantages of tax cut combining with the latest economic data publicized by the Statistical Commission of our country ;the feasibility and efficiency of tax cut are constrained by a number of factors. Thus,the economy data of Zhejiang from the year 1991 to 2007 is selected and the ordinary least squares is used to make a regression analysis to macro -tax rate with GDP ; the direct ratio of macro-tax rate with GDP is obtained, that is, a lower tax burden corresponds to a lower rate of economic growth and the impact on GDP growth is becaming more and more diverse, and the impact of taxation on the GDP is also becoming smaller and smaller. Therefore, in this case, rather study how to use tax than study how to tax cut ,that is the most important choice now.
Key words: tax reduction, Macro-tax burden , Use tax，CPI, PPI
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