人民币名义汇率的实证分析

人民币名义汇率的实证分析
摘　　要

伴随着美国国际收支赤字的连年激增，美国若想弥补其经常项目逆差和国内净资本流出，必须每年吸引上万亿美元的资本流入。如此下去，美国最终会因为失去偿债能力而崩溃，同时扰乱世界经济的稳定，因此美国希望各国承担美元贬值的压力。
对美元加权汇率影响最大的货币分别是加元、欧元、日元、墨西哥比索和人民币。美、加、墨为北美自由贸易区成员国，所以美国不会迫使加、墨两国承担过大的升值压力；20世纪90年代广场协议签订后，欧元和日元相对美元已有过较大幅度升值。在美国看来只有人民币还有较大的升值潜力，加之中国对美国的连年国际收支顺差，更增大了人民币升值的压力。
本文分别从购买力平价、利率平价和外汇储备三方面对人民币市场名义汇率的均衡条件进行实证分析，并依据适当模型对未来人民币汇率走势进行了简单预测。

关键词：人民币名义汇率；购买力平价；实际利率；外汇储备

The empirical analysis of RMB’s nominal exchange rate
ABSTRACT

With the deficit of the U.S. balance of payments surging year after year, the U.S. needs to attract a trillion dollars a year in capital inflows to offset the current account deficit and domestic net capital outflow, if we let it goes on, the United States will eventually collapse because of the loss of solvent, at the same time, it can disrupt the stability of the world economy, therefore the United States hopes that all countries can bear the pressure of the devaluation of dollar.
　　It is Canadian dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, Mexican peso and the RMB that make the largest influence on the U.S. dollar trade-weighted exchange rate of the currency weights . Among them, the United States, Canada and Mexico are both members of the North American Free Trade Area, so the United States can not force these two countries to bear too much pressure of the devaluation of the dollar; when it comes to the 1990s, after the signing of the Plaza Agreement, the Euro and the Yen have been appreciated against the U.S dollar. Therefore, in the opinion of the US, it is not only the time for the RMB to appreciate, but also with high potential. In addition, combined with successive years of trade surplus with the United States in China, another more pressure is forced to the appreciation of the RMB.
  This article is not only written from three sides, the U.S. purchasing power parity, China and the U.S. interest rate parity and foreign exchange reserve, to take an Empirical Analysis of the equilibrium nominal exchange rate of RMB market conditions, but also it gives a simple forecast of the trend of the RMB exchange rate in the future with reference to a proper model .

Key words：RMB nominal exchange rate；purchasing power parity；real interest rate； foreign exchange reserves   

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