人民币币值变化与中国国际贸易的关系

对人民币升值问题，国内和国际的许多经济学家和政府要员纷纷发表观点，阐述人民币升值对中国经济、亚洲经济和世界经济的影响。文章首先分析了人民币升值压力的来源，然后着重研究人民币币值变动和国际贸易的相互关系，在分析的过程中利用一系列相关理论对汇率与贸易理论进行阐述，并围绕此理论对现实经济问题进行实证分析。如：人民币币值变动对中国国际贸易的影响，以及中国与诸发达国家之间具体贸易关系的变动等问题。从理论上来说,汇率与贸易条件之间有十分紧密的联系, 汇率是一国货币同外国货币交换的比价,而贸易条件则是用本币或外币衡量的进出口商品的比价,汇率变动即可以改善一国的贸易条件,也可以恶化一国的贸易条件,究竟是改善了一国贸易条件还是恶化了一国贸易条件,取决于该国进出口商品的供求弹性及汇率变动后进出口商品的结构和出口商品的生产成本的变动。所以本外币之间比价的变动必然引起以本币或外币衡量的进出口商品比价的变动。最后本文依据上述分析做出了主要的政策选择，并得出了人民币币值的变动对中国国际贸易的影响是很小的，我们不应该对此有过大的压力，而是从客观的角度去应对所面临的问题。

关键词：人民币  汇率  国际贸易   经常项目   升值  变动

Abstract
The value question of RMB becomes a topic which has been paid close attention to in the world recently. The Japanese wealth put forward the demand at seven countries' finance minister's meeting first, and then there were statements spoke by American finance minister Snow and Asian-European meeting which Indonesia hold of, all of which called upon RMB to appreciate. To the appreciation question of RMB, our country and a lot of important officials of economists and governments of world published views one after another, which explained the impact of RMB appreciation on China's economy, Asian economy and international economy. The article has analysed the source of the appreciation pressure of RMB at first, then study the interreaction between the value change of RMB and international trade emphatically, and utilize a series of relevant theories to explain the exchange rate and trade theory during the process of analysis, and carry on real example analysis to the economic question of reality around this theory. For instance: the impact of the value change of RMB on Chinese international trade, and the change of the concrete trade relations between China and developed countries, etc. In theory, there are very close connections between exchange rate and terms of trade, the exchange rate is the rate of exchange that one country's currency and foreign country exchange rate through money, but the terms of trade are rates of exchange of the imported and exported goods weighed by the home currency or the foreign currency, and the change of exchange rate can improve the terms of trade of one country, and also can worsen the terms of trade of one country. Have improved the terms of trade of one country or worsenned the terms of trade of one country on earth, depends on this country imported and exported supply and demand elasticity and exchange rate of imported and exported structure and change of production cost of export commodities of goods. So the change of the rate of exchange between the home currency and foreign currency must cause the change of the rate of imported and exported goods weighed by the home currency or the foreign currency. Finally this text makes the main policy choice on the basis of the above-mentioned analysis, and draws the conclusion that the impact of the value change of RMB on Chinese international trade very small. We should not have too big pressure to this, but should face the problems from the objective angle.
KEY WORDS: RMB, rate of exchange, international trade, always projection, rise of value, floation

目录
前言
第一章 人民币币值与中国经济问题概述
第二章 人民币升值压力来源分析
第三章   汇率理论与中国国际贸易问题
   第一节   汇率与贸易关系的理论分析(经常项目与国际收支的平衡,与进出口量之间的关系)
   第二节   中国国际贸易现状
   第三节   人民币汇率变动对中国国际贸易的影响(用已有理论进行分析)
   第四节   正面影响
   第五节   负面影响
第四章   人民币汇率变动与国际贸易问题的实证性分析。
   第一节   与美国的贸易关系
   第二节   与日本的贸易关系
第五章   主要政策选择及对策
第一节 汇率政策的选择
第二节 主要对策
第六章    结论及建议
    致谢
参考文献
附录一
附录二

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