管理者有限理性行为分析

摘　　要

本文基于西蒙的有限理性理论来探讨管理者的有限理性行为。由于管理者是生活在现实中的真实人，不可避免的会受到认知、情感、经验、情绪的影响，在日常的管理和决策中很难做到完全理性，只能最大限度的做到有限理性，最大程度的追求利益最大化。管理者由于外部环境和自身素质的限制不会去寻找“最锋利的针”，同时也找不到“最锋利的针”，只要找到“能缝衣服的针”即可。但是管理者作为一个特殊的群体，他们的决策极为重要，会影响着公司的发展战略，影响着公司的前景和命运。投资政策是现代公司理财的三大核心问题之一，影响着公司的价值。而投资决策通常由管理者经过严格的数据分析和研究之后作出。但是管理者并不是完全理性的，在决策过程中管理者会受到很多因素的影响，很难做出一个完美的决策。因此，以有限理性理论为理论基础，分析管理者这一特殊的群体究竟有着怎样的有限理性行为。投资政策作为公司理财的三大核心问题之一，有着毋庸置疑的重要地位。因此，本文重点从投资政策这个角度来研究管理者的有限理性行为，并结合实际给出了改进性的的建议。

关键词：有限理性；投资政策；过度自信；风险厌恶 ；羊群行为
The analysis of managers’ s limited rational behavior
Abstract

The whole text researches the management’s bounded rationality behavior based on Simon's theory of limited rational.Because managers live in reality. Inevitablely they will be affected by cognitive, emotional, experience, emotion.They would not make fully rational decisionst on managemenn in the daily life.They have to try their best to be fully rational,and pursue the utility maximization. Managers will not seek the sharpest needle,instead of Sewing needle,restricted to external environment and their own quality.As a special group,  their decision is extremely important,which affect the company's development strategy and affect the company's prospects and destiny. Investment policy is one of three core of corporate finance. It will affect the company's value. Managers have to analy much data rigorously before make decisions. However, managers in decision-making process are affected by many factors,can not make perfect decision.So we analyze the behavioral characteristics of managers based on Simon's theory of limited rational.  The whole article focuses on the investment policy to learn managers’s bounded rationality behavior. Finally,there ere pieces of practical recommendations.

Keywords: bounded rational; investment policy ; overconfidence;risk aversion; herd behavioal

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