我国主要经济指标对股票市场的影响分析

摘要
资本市场的发达程度标志着一个经济体的发展水平，而股票市场作为资本市场的重要组成部分，被称为是经济发展的“晴雨表”，已是机构和个人投资者投资的热门对象。综观近几年中国股票市场的发展，随着创业板、融资融券、股指期货等的不断推出，中国的股票市场正在努力向一个更加完善的方向前进。但是2008年金融危机引发了经济的剧烈动荡，中国的股票市场也变得动荡不安，股票市场的动态也不能很好的反应宏观经济的变化，这使得投资者在运用经济指标指导投资决策时变得无从下手，本文在分析经济指标与股票市场关系的基础上，运用定性与定量的计量经济学分析方法，通过常用的经济指标与股票指数建立多元回归模型，用以分析经济指标对股票市场投资决策的指导意义，从而为投资股市选用更加有指导意义的经济指标。

关键词：经济指标；股票市场；多元回归模型；沪深300指数
A study of the impact about China's major economic indicators on the stock market
ABSTRACT
Capital market developed degree marks an economy development level, And the stock market as an important part of capital market, called the "barometer of economic development," By organizations and individual investors welcomed. On the development of China's stock market in recent years, With GEM, securities margin trading, stock index futures came out, China's stock market is trying to toward a more perfect direction. But the 2008 financial crisis triggered the violent unrest economic, China's stock market has become unrest too, the stock market dynamic not good reaction macroeconomic changes, Investors in investment decision become confused that use economic indicators guidance. This thesis based on the analysis of economic indicators and the stock market relationship, Use qualitative and quantitative econometrics analysis method, through the common economic indicators and stock index build multivariate regression model, Use it analyses economic indicators of the stock market investment decision-making of instruction meaning that for investing in the stock market choose more guidance of economic indicators.

Key Words ：economic indicator；stock market；multivariate regression mode；Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index futures

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