案例,spss,数据分析

中国股市波动与货币供给互动关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析


全文字数:10000字左右  原创时间:<=2022年

【内容摘要】

中国股市波动与货币供给互动关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析
现今我国正处于经济体制改革的关键时期,为稳定金融市场的良好发展秩序,给予股市参与者合理的建议,本文中探究我国股市的波动与货币的供给因素两者间的相关性具有非常重要的理论和现实意义。首先本文从理论上对货币供给与股市波动的互动机制展开研究;然后建立VAR模型进行实证方面的探究。研究发现:(1)脉冲响应函数中股票市场的变动对M1有一定的影响,且影响的时间较短,不存在长期上的趋势影响;(2)货币供给量对股票市场的影响效果先上升后下降,上升和下降迅速,发挥作用的时间比较短,且短期效果有限,也不存在长期上的趋势影响。本文针对所得出的实证结论,展开对结论的讨论并提出了几项对策与建议。
关键词:股市波动;货币供给量;VAR模型
China's Stock Market Volatility and the Money Supply Interaction Research ——Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model
 
Abstract: Nowadays, China is in the critical period of economic system reform. It is very important to explore the relationship between the fluctuation of stock market and the supply factor of money in order to stabilize the order of good development of financial market and give stock market participants a reasonable suggestion. And practical significance. First of all, this paper studies the interaction mechanism between money supply and stock market volatility in theory, and then establishes the VAR model to explore the empirical aspects. It is found that: (1) the fluctuation of the stock market has a certain influence on the M1, and the impact time is short, there is no long-term trend impact; (2) the effect of money supply on the stock market effect first Rise and fall after the rise and fall quickly, play a short time, and short-term effect is limited, there is no long-term trend of the impact. In this paper, based on the empirical conclusions, the discussion of the conclusion and put forward several countermeasures and suggestions.
Key words: the volatility of stock market; money supply; VAR model

 

*若需了解更多与协助请咨询↓→[电脑QQ][手机QQ]【数据协助】