多项式曲线趋势外推法及其实际应用

文章首先阐述了在变化多端的市场上，有效可靠的经济预测合理解决实际问题背景,论述了多项式曲线趋势外推法的研究意义以及研究现状,然后介绍多项式曲线趋势外推法的概念以及模型，再重点论述多项式曲线趋势外推法的基本原理。利用多项式曲线趋势外推法的基本原理进行实际应用，以安徽省2003年—2015年城镇人均可支配收入为样本数据，预测出2018年安徽城镇人均可支配收入上涨；在运用Excel软件，以安徽省2002年—2016年年末就业人员数为样本，预测2018年安徽省年末就业人员数会有小幅度下降；然后使用Matlab软件，对2008年—2017年全国的社会商品销售总额进行研究，预测2018年全国社会商品零售总额会攀升。最后以三种不同方式的检验预测出的结果，并且结合实际情况，对我国经济现状进行合理分析，并提出建议。多项式曲线趋势外推法的有效性和可行性好，为经济研究提供便利，与此同时也分析出多项式曲线趋势外推法的一些不足之处。

关键词：多项式曲线模型；趋势外推法；实际应用及分析；经济预测
 
Polynomial curve model; Trend extrapolation; Practical application and analysis; Economic forecasting
Abstract: This article first describes the background of effective and reliable economic forecasting to solve practical problems in a multi-faceted market, discusses the research significance and research status of extrapolation of polynomial curve trends, and then introduces the concept of extrapolation of polynomial curve trends. The model focuses on the basic principles of extrapolation of polynomial curve trends. The practical application of the principle of polynomial curve trend extrapolation is applied. Taking the per capita disposable income of cities and towns in Anhui Province from 2003 to 2015 as sample data, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Anhui is projected to rise in 2018; using Excel software to use Anhui The number of employed people in the province from 2002 to 2016 is a sample. It is predicted that the number of employed people in Anhui Province in 2018 will decrease slightly; then, using Matlab software, the total social product sales in the country from 2008 to 2017 will be studied. The forecast is 2018. The total retail sales of social goods in the country will climb. Finally, the results of three different ways of testing and forecasting, combined with actual conditions, a reasonable analysis of China's economic status, and recommendations. The extrapolation of the polynomial curve trend is effective and feasible, which facilitates economic research and at the same time analyzes some deficiencies of the extrapolation of the polynomial curve trend.

Keywords: polynomial curve model; trend extrapolation; practical application and analysis; economic forecast 

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