基于灰色预测法的山东省房地产市场预测
本文采用灰色系统理论对山东省房地产市场进行分析预测。首先从山东省17地市中选取了济南、淄博和菏泽三个有代表性的城市，采集了2016年以来相关月度数据。先利用济南市数据建立了灰色预测模型并进行检验，证明了模型的有效性。然后利用该模型预测了淄博和菏泽房地产市场价格，从而通过这三个代表性地市的情况间接对山东省房地产总体市场进行了分析，并提出了对策建议。
关键词：房地产市场；灰色系统；GM(1,1)模型；预测
Prediction of Shandong real estate market
based on grey prediction method
ABSTRACT
The grey system theory is applied to analyze and predict the real estate market in Shandong province. First, three representative cities of Ji'nan, Zibo and Heze were selected from 17 cities in Shandong Province, and the relevant monthly data since 2016 were collected. We use the data of Ji'nan city to establish the grey prediction model and test it to prove the validity of the model. Then the model is used to predict the real estate market price in Zibo and Heze, therefore, the overall market of Shandong's real estate is analyzed indirectly based on these three representative cities. Some countermeasures are put forward in the end.
Keywords: Real estate market; Grey system; GM (1,1) model; Prediction
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