基于有限理性理论的逆向投资策略分析

证券市场的价格具有明显的波动性，同时作为金融市场上的独立个体，投资者在进行证券交易时，其非理性投机活动使得证券市场经常处于非有效状态，因此从传统金融视角进行市场分析缺乏足够的准确性。本文根据有限理性理论，结合羊群效应、个体投资者的短视目光和过度投机的影响，通过巴菲特的投资理念，葛卫东3年持股西藏药业，以及*ST河化的保壳这三个案例来分析国内外逆向投资策略的应用，以此了解个体投资者的非理性投资心理，进而分析逆向投资策略，以期为广大投资者提供相应的证券投资建议。

关键词：有限理性；行为金融；逆向投资；价值投资；投资策略
Analysis of Reverse Investment Strategies Based on Iimited Rational Theory
ABSTRACT
The securities market has great volatility, and the irrational speculation of investors makes the securities market often in an inactive state, so the market analysis from the traditional financial perspective lacks sufficient accuracy. Based on the theory of limited rationality, combined with the sheep effect, the short-sighted eyes of individual investors and the influence of excessive speculation, this paper analyzes the application of reverse investment strategies at home and abroad through Buffett's investment philosophy, Ge Weidong's three-year ownership of Tibetan pharmaceutical industry, and the three cases of the shell of ST Riverization, so as to understand the irrational investment psychology of individual investors, and then analyze the reverse investment strategy, and provide corresponding investment advice for the majority of investors.

Keywords： limited rationality; Behavioral finance; Reverse investment; Value investments; Investment strategy
目录
摘  要 2
ABSTRACT 3
一、引言 1
二、文献综述 1
（一）有限理性理论 2
（二）逆向投资策略 2
（三）文献评述 2
三、羊群效应下的逆向投资策略：巴菲特价值投资理念 4
四、个体投资者短视目光影响下的逆向投资策略：葛卫东持股西藏药业 5
五、受个体投资者过度投机心理影响的逆向投资策略：以*ST河化粉饰报表保壳为例 6
六、有限理性影响下的证券投资建议 7
（一）了解非理性投资心理和行为，选择合适的交易时机 7
（二）科学分析基本面，选择合适的证券品种 7

*若需了解更多与协助请咨询↓→[电脑QQ][手机QQ]【数据协助】