我国是世界上人口最多且土地资源相对稀缺的国家, 耕地保护与粮食安全问题一直是制约我国农业乃至国民经济发展的重要因素, 同时也是学者研究的热点之一。对于滨州地区来说, 利用和保护好有限的耕地资源, 是当地经济和环境可持续发展的重要前提。但由于长期的社会经济发展、人口急剧增长和非农用地大量侵吞耕地致使城市有限的耕地资源不断日益减少, 人均耕地逐年减少和耕地可持续生产能力的下降已经严重影响了粮食安全。地处长三角区的滨州市, 其耕地的动态变化无疑是影响地区粮食安全和可持续发展的关键因素。耕地总量和人均耕地面积的减少只能在一定程度上定性反映耕地资源状况持续恶化的危机态势, 难以反映耕地资源所承载的压力。基于此, 笔者采用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型, 通过对该地区耕地压力进行定量分析和评价, 以期为未来滨州耕地保护决策的制定提供理论依据。
关键字：耕地变化；粮食安全；最小人均耕地面积；耕地压力指数模型
Research on cultivated land change and food security
in Binzhou City
abstract
China is the world's largest population and the relative scarcity of land resources in the country, farmland protection and food security problems have restricted the development of agriculture as well as an important factor in the national economy, but also the hot spots of scholars. For the Binzhou region, using and protecting the limited arable land resources is an important prerequisite to the local economy and the environment for sustainable development. However, due to the long-term social and economic development, population growth and a large number of non-agricultural land resulting in misappropriation of arable land with limited arable land resources, the city continued diminishing, decreasing per capita arable land and arable land for sustainable production capacity of the decline has a serious impact on food security.
Binzhou City, located in the Yangtze River Delta region, and its dynamic change of cultivated land is undoubtedly the key factors which affect food security and sustainable development. Total and per capita arable land area decreased only to a certain extent, reflect the Farmland qualitative worsening of the crisis situation, can not reflect the pressure on land resources that are hosted. Based on this, I used the smallest per capita arable land area and land pressure index model, the pressure on arable land in the region for quantitative analysis and evaluation to the next Binzhou for the protection of cultivated land to provide a theoretical basis for decision making.
Key words: Land change; food security; minimum per capita arable land area; land pressure index model
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