资本与金融账户顺差的影响因素研究

摘    要
20世纪90年代以来，中国的国际收支呈现出资本与金融项目持续顺差现象。造成顺差的原因有很多，其中外商直接投资（FDI）、人民币汇率变动及人口年龄结构是三个重要的影响因素。运用相关理论、定性分析和实证的分析结果表明，这三个因素与资本与金融项目顺差之间存在着显著的因果关系。对资本与金融项目顺差现象成因的分析，得出结论，政府应该提高利用外资的质量和效益，合理利用外汇，为资本项目的开放创造条件，改善人口年龄结构等措施来缓解顺差的局面。

关键词：资本与金融项目顺差；外商直接投资；人民币升值；人口年龄结构

 
Abstract
Since the 1990s, China's international payments showed capital and financial projects continue surplus phenomenon. There are many reasons caused the surplus, foreign direct investment (FDI), the RMB exchange rate changes and the aging of the population structure are three important factors. Using the related theory, qualitative analysis and empirical analysis shows that, these three factors and capital and financial projects surplus exists between the significant causal relationship. Project of capital and financial analysis, the causes of phenomena surplus conclusion, the government should improve the quality and efficiency of the utilization of foreign capital and foreign exchange for capital and rational utilization of project open create conditions so as to improve the measures to alleviate the surplus.

Keywords：capital & financial account surplus; foreign direct investment; revaluation of RMB; age structure of population

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