FDI对外汇储备增长贡献的实证分析

FDI对外汇储备增长贡献的实证分析
摘  要

自改革开放以来，流入我国的外商直接投资（FDI）得到了大规模的增加；与此同时，我国的国际贸易收支和外汇储备也得到了迅速的增长，这对于我国的经济发展和国际地位的巩固都是一把锋利的“双刃剑”。因此，通过建模实证分析FDI的大量流入与外汇储备的大规模增长之间确切的动态关系就具有很大的研究价值。本文通过联立国际收支恒等式、国民收入函数和进口函数建立外汇储备增长与FDI流入的动态模型，并结合计量工具对FDI的大量流入对我国外汇储备大规模增长的实际贡献进行实证分析，表明FDI在促进我国外汇储备的增长过程中具有长期重要的影响力，并结合中国目前的外商直接投资和外汇储备情况对我国的外资政策以加强FDI的长期正面影响，改善FDI的长期负面效应提出相应的建议。

关键词：外商直接投资，外汇储备，建模，实证分析

ABSTRACT

Since the reform and opening up, the FDI flowed into China has increased by a large scale. At the same time, the balance of international trade and the foreign exchange reserves of China have also increased rapidly, which is a sharp “double-edged sword” to our country’s development of economy and the consolidation of its international status. Therefore, it has great researching value to empirically analyze the exact dynamic relationship between the large number of FDI inflows and the large scale of foreign exchange reserves by modeling. In this paper, we will use the balance of payments identify，the national income function and the import function to establish a dynamic model of foreign exchange reserves and the FDI inflows, and empirically analyze the actual contribution of FDI inflows to the foreign exchange reserves combined with measurement tools, which shows that FDI has a long-term significant influence in promoting the growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves. In this paper, the writer will also give some advices in China’s foreign policy to strengthen FDI’s long-term positive impact, and to improve its long-term negative effects combined with China’s current situation of FDI and foreign exchange reserves.

Key Words：FDI, Foreign exchange reserves, Modeling, Empirical analysis

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