当前利率的“真实”水平初探

摘        要
利率作为借贷资金的价格，是引导资源配置的重要信号，是联系金融市场和实物市场、宏观经济和微观经济的重要变量。利率是经济体系中的重要杠杆，其水平的高低能够反映一国经济的运行情况，同时其变动又能影响到物价水平、国民收入等重要的宏观经济变量。因此，利率的变动是判断一国宏观经济状况的重要指标，利率的走势分析是宏观经济预测的重要手段。本文在现有文献的基础上，总结了影响利率的因素及其与利率的关系，利用历史数据做实证分析，通过费雪公式，根据中国实际情况，引入银行同业拆借利率以及民间借贷利率，建立我国利率走势评价模型，旨在对我国实际利率的变动趋势做出判断，从而分析国民经济的变动方向。
本文共分四个部分。第一部分是利率的理论综述，对利率的发展理论进行介绍。介绍了西方经济学家费雪对利率决定的分析，总结了学者对实际利率与名义利率,通货膨胀率之间关系的研究，并对利率预测方法进行了归纳与概括。第二部分对影响利率的深层因素进行了全面的分析，引入影响中国实际利率的银行同业拆借利率以及民间借贷利率，从而将那些在利率决定中常常被忽略的因素也纳入到我们的分析框架中来。第三部分是研究实际利率的走势方向以及对经济的影响，在以上研究与分析的基础上，通过分析2000-2010年中国实际利率的走势以及中国政府的调控措施来预测实际利率的发展水平，以及由于长期的处于负值的实际利率所对经济的影响，第四部分是对我国利率管理体制改革的基本思路。

关键词： 实际利率、通货膨胀率、名义利率、银行同业拆借利率、民间借贷利率、经济发展态势

ABSTRACT
Interest rates as lending the price of capital, is the important guiding resource allocation signal is the financial markets and physical contact market, macro economic and micro economy important variables. The interest rate is the important lever economic system, the level of economic activity in the country can reflect the operation, and its change and can affect the price level, national income and important macroeconomic variables. Therefore, interest rate movements is judge the macro-control of the state of the economy important index, the interest rate on the movements of the analysis is an important means of macro economic forecasts. In this paper based on the existing literature, summarized the influence of the factors and the interest rate and interest rate, the relation between the use historical data, the empirical analysis, through the fisher formula, according to the actual situation in China, the introduction of interbank offered rate, and folk lending rate, establish China's interest rate trend evaluation model of China's real interest rates to judge the trend of it, so as to analyze the change of direction of the national economy.
This paper is divided into four parts. First part is the theory of interest rates were introduced in this paper, the development of the theory of interest rate was introduced. Introduction to the western economists fee to the analysis of the snow interest rate decision, and summarizes the scholar of real interest rates and nominal interest rates, and inflation rate research of the relationship between, and the interest rate prediction method on the induction and generalization. The second part of the deep influence interest factors on the comprehensive analysis of the influence of the actual interest rate introduced China interbank offered rate, and folk lending interest rates and thus will be those in interest rate decisions are often neglected the factors into to our analysis framework. The third part is the study of the actual interest rate movements direction and the impact on the economy of, in the above research and on the basis of analysis, through the analysis of 2000-2010 year China real interest rates and the trend of the Chinese government regulation measures to forecast the development level of the actual interest rate, and the result is a long in a negative real interest rates have implications for the economy, the last part is to our country interest rate of the management system reform of basic train of thought.

Keywords: real interest rates，the inflation rate, nominal interest rate, interbank offered rate, folk lending interest rates, economic development situation

*若需了解更多与协助请咨询↓→[电脑QQ][手机QQ]【数据协助】