上市公司财务预警分析

摘要
本文根据前人研究的结果采用了对财务预警比较有影响的十个财务指标并进行分析，然后采用具实际意义和正确率较高的logistic回归模型进行财务预警实证分析。选取的样本分建模组和预测组，运用spss对建模组样本财务数据进行各种检验和分析建立有效的logistic回归方程，再用预测组样本代入所建立的回归方程进行验证和预测，结果证明该模型的预测效果是比较强的，能够为上市公司各利益相关者进行企业财务危机预测提供有效的帮助。

关键字：上市公司；财务预警；logistic模型

Listed Company Finance Early
Warning Analysis
ABSTRACT
This paper based on past results of the Study adopted 10 financial indexes which impact on the financial early - warning and analysis, then adopt logistic regression model with practical significance and higher accuracy rate prewarning empirical analysis. Selected sample points modeling groups and forecasting group, to financial data for modeling group samples using SPSS to do all kinds of examination and analysis and then establishing the effective logistic regression equation, making the forecasting group samples into the established regression equation which results show that the model prediction of the effect is relatively strong. So the equation can provide effective assistance to pridict the financial crisis for various stakeholders of listed companies of enterprise.
Key Words ：Listed Company；Financial Early – Warning；Logistic models

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