２００５年７月２１日的人民币汇率制度的改革，改变了人民币汇率的形成机制。在参考一篮子货币的浮动汇率制度下，人民币兑美元的汇率持续上升，并在２００６年上半年呈加速上升趋势。
然而，传统的建立在国别基础上的有效汇率计算公式的结果，却显现人民币并不存在明显的升值态势。本文结合当前国际贸易的实际情况，尝试对传统的计算公式进行修正，建立基于结算币种的，更能反映我国进出口企业所面临的汇率变化的，有效汇率计算公式，并以此公式估算和分析有效汇率的升值趋势，以期为企业规避汇率风险提供参考和决策的依据。
关键词：有效汇率、修正的有效汇率、实证分析
Abstract
On July 21, 2005, the reform of the RMB exchange rate system changed the formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate. In reference to a basket of currencies under the floating exchange rate system, the RMB/USD exchange rate continued to rise, and in the first half of 2006, accelerated it’s upward trend. However, the results of traditional effective exchange rate, which based on the country, demonstrate that there is no obvious evidence of RMB upward trend. In this paper, combining with the realities of international trade, we try to make an amendment to the traditional formula. We establish a new effective exchange rate formula which based on the clearing currency. We believe that this amended effective exchange rate can reflect changes in exchange rates faced by the China's import and export enterprises better, and we also expect that our calculation and analysis of results may help our enterprises to avoid exchange rate risk, and make decisions.
Key words：effective exchange rate，amended effective exchange rate，empirical Analysis
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