天津市第三产业发展影响因素分析

伴随着我国经济的迅猛增长，第三产业的发展越来越被人们重视，在我国生产总值中第三产业所占了越来越大的比重。当今通常用第三产业占生产总值的比重去衡量一个国家或者地区现代化水平的发展状况。近年来天津市经济发展迅速。研究天津市第三产业的规律和其发展的现状、找出影响天津市第三产业发展的因素、逐步优化产业结构，对推动天津市第三产业的加速发展和制定相关产业政策，有着十分重要不可或缺的意义。
本文通过使用SPSS软件，选取天津市1978—2007年的相关数据进行分析，运用定量和定性分析的方法对第三产业的影响因素进行实证分析。找出对天津第三产业发展最具影响力的因素。发现天津市第三产业发展所需解决的问题，并提出对策和建议，以推动其继续持续和健康的发展。第三产业的发展受多种因素的共同影响，主要包括：经济发展水平、城镇化水平、居民生活水平、劳动力、政府作用、对外开放程度和其他（随机因素）这几个因素都或多或少的从各个方面对天津市第三产业的发展产生着影响。城镇第三产业从业人员比重是促进服务业发展的主要决定因素，政府消费总额决定了第三产业发展的市场和空间，城镇人口数量与第三产业发展呈正相关关系，为第三产业的增长提供了新的动力。

关键词：第三产业；因子分析；回归分析；

Content in this paper
Along with the rapid growth of economy in our country, the development of the tertiary industry is more and more attention by people, in China's GDP proportion of the tertiary industry is more and more big. Today often use the tertiary industry accounted for the proportion of GDP to measure a country or region modernization level of development. Tianjin economy is developing fast in recent years. Study the law of the tertiary industry of tianjin and its development status, find out the factors affecting the development of the tertiary industry of tianjin, and gradually optimize the industrial structure, to develop the tertiary industry of tianjin development of relevant industrial policies and promote the further development of the third industry, has the extremely vital significance.
In this paper, by using SPSS software, select the related data of tianjin in 1978-2007 were analyzed, using the method of quantitative and qualitative analysis to the empirical analysis the influence factors of the third industry. Find out about the third industry development of the most influential factors in tianjin. Find the need to resolve problems in the development of the tertiary industry of tianjin, and puts forward some countermeasures and Suggestions, to promote its sustainable and healthy development. Together by various factors impact on the development of the third industry, mainly includes: the level of economic development, urbanization level, residents' living standard, Labour, government function, degree of opening to the outside world and the other (random factors) that several factors are more or less from the aspects of the impact on the development of the tertiary industry of tianjin. Proportion of the tertiary industry practitioners in cities and towns is a major determinant of promoting the development of service industry, Government spending and determines the development of the third industry market space, the urban population and the third industry development were positively correlated relationship, for the growth of the tertiary industry provides a new impetus.
Key words: The third industry; Factor analysis; Regression analysis;

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