社会保障支出对生育行为影响的研究——来自中国省际面板数据的经验证据近年来，中国人口出生率持续下降，人口老龄化问题日益严重，严重阻碍了中国经济的增长。人口问题已成为我国现阶段面临的重大问题。本文以中国为研究对象，将政府财政行为纳入到影响生育行为的因素中，分析了社会保障支出对个体生育行为产生的影响。利用2001-2014年省际面板数据，使用多种估计方法，从绝对指标和相对指标两个角度，实证研究财政社会保障支出对个体生育行为的影响。研究表明，不论是采用绝对指标还是相对指标，财政社会保障支出对人口出生率均有显著的正影响。本文认为，在目前的国情下，不仅应进一步调整生育政策，全面放开二胎生育，还应进一步增加财政社会保障支出，提高社会保障水平，从而促进个体的生育行为。
关键词：人口出生率；社会保障支出；生育行为
Study on the Influence of Social Security Expenditure on Fertility Behavior
——An Empirical Evidence from China
ABSTRACT
In recent years, China's birth rate has continued to decline, the problem of population aging is becoming increasingly serious, which has seriously hindered the growth of China's economy. Population problem has become a serious problem in our country. In this paper, we take China as the research object and analyze the impact of finance social security expenditure on individual fertility behavior. We use China 2001-2014 provincial panel data and a variety of estimation methods to make an empirical study on the influence of financial social security expenditure on individual fertility behavior. The research shows that the finance social security expenditure has a significant positive effect on the birth rate of the population, whether it is absolute index or relative index. Accordingly, we think that, not only should we further adjust the fertility policy, release the full liberalization of the second child policy, but also we should further increase the finance social security expenditure, raise the level of social security, so as to promote the individual fertility behavior.
Keywords：Birth Rate; Social Security Expenditure; Fertility Behavior
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