我国农村居民收入与消费关系的实证分析

根据我国农村居民1978年——2015年的时间序列数据，本文运用协整理论和误差修正模型(ECM)对我国农村居民收入与消费支出之间的协整关系进行了实证分析。分析结果表明，长期中，我国农村居民人均消费和人均收入之间存在着协整关系，农村居民的收入是制约农村居民消费的关键因素；短期中，本期的消费水平不仅与本期的收入有关，而且还与上一期的消费水平之间存在很大的联系。农村居民的收入对消费支出的影响显著。因此，必须创立农村居民收入增长的长效机制。
关键词：农村居民人均收入；人均消费；协整理论；误差修正模型

An empirical analysis of the relationship
between income and consumption of rural residents in China
ABSTRACT
Based on the time series data from 1978 to 2015, this paper uses cointegration theory and error correction model (ECM) to empirically analyze the co integration relationship between income and consumption expenditure of rural residents in china. The results show that there is a long-term co integration relationship between per capita income and per capita consumption of rural residents in china. In the long run, income growth is an important factor restricting the growth of consumer spending; in the short term, the current consumption is not only related to the current amount of income, but also with the size of the previous phase of consumption. The income of rural residents has a significant impact on consumption, and it is necessary to establish a long-term mechanism to increase the income of rural residents.

Keywords：Per capita income of rural residents;consumption per person;Cointegration theory;error correction model

*若需了解更多与协助请咨询↓→[电脑QQ][手机QQ]【数据协助】