房价上涨对生育行为的影响——基于2001年-2013年全国21个省的省级面板数据

实行计划生育政策以来，中国的人口生育率持续下滑，这引起了学术界和政界的广泛关注。除了政策对生育行为的影响外，还有经济，社会保障等方面的影响。本文选取2001-2013年中国东部和中部21个省份的省际面板数据，对居民生育行为的影响因素进行经验估计，运用广义最小二乘法(FGLS)来估计这些变量对出生率的影响，并且划分东部和中部来分别分析。得出结论：房价对出生率负效应显著，房价高速上涨对人的生育行为有明显的抑制作用；东部地区的房价对出生率的抑制作用更显著，且高于全国平均水平。

关键词：房价；生育行为；出生率；广义最小二乘法

The Influence of Housing Price on Fertility Behavior
ABSTRACT
Since the implementation of the family planning policy, China's fertility rate has continued to decline, which has aroused widespread concern in academic and political circles. In addition to the impact of policy, there are also economic, social security and other aspects of the impact.This paper selects inter-provincial panel data from 21 provinces in eastern and central China from 2001 to 2013 to estimate the influencing factors of residents' fertility behavior, and uses the generalized least squares method (FGLS) to estimate the impact of these variables on the birth rate,then divide the region to analyze separately.It is concluded that house prices have a significant negative effect on the birth rate, and the rapid increase in housing prices will significantly impede people’s fertility behavior; housing prices in the eastern region have a more pronounced inhibitory effect on birth rates and are higher than the national average.

Keywords： Housing price; the fertility behavior; birth rate; FGLS

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