宏观经济中一个争论焦点就是关于货币政策的有效性以及短期内价格水平是否刚性问题。
然而货币政策在实体经济中的传导作用究竟倾向于价格刚性还是价格能迅速调整还没有一个定论。而我国正在不断向市场经济体制转型期间，整个金融体系正在不断走向市场化，货币政策的使用范围和频率也在不断增加。本文主要就近四年内的货币政策及其效果进行实证分析，并且对新经济形式下我国货币政策有效性的挑战做出展望。
本文总共分为五个部分。第一部分提出研究问题的背景和研究方法。第二部对货币政策有效性的有关理论进行回顾。第三部分概述了一下我国现阶段和货币政策有关的金融市场现状，并且介绍了我国主要的货币政策工具及其操作情况。第四部分对选取的货币政策工具变量和目标变量进行实证检验。最后简述了对我国的货币政策有效性可能的影响因素。
本文的不局限于通常的政策描述以及定性的因果分析，而是主要通过主要变量的实证检验来判断货币政策的具体效果。
关键词：货币政策，有效性，因果检验
ABSTRACT
One major focus of macroeconomics is the effectiveness of monetary policies, whose essence is the flexibility of the price level. However, whether the price level is able to adjust within the transmission mechanism is yet to be concluded. Our economy is marketizing at a rapid pace. Therefore, the whole financial system is approaching marketization and monetary policies has been implementing more frequently and more widely. This article basically concerns the empirical analysis of monetary policy variables any its targets, while forecasting the potential challenge to the effectiveness of monetary policies in China.
This article is divided into five chapters. The first chapter carries out the background and methodology of the issue. The second chapter reviews macroeconomic theories concerning monetary policies. The third chapter briefly depicts the current status of our financial system as a whole and introduces the basic instruments of monetary polices our government is currently implementing. The fourth chapter conducts empirical test of the impact of instruments variables on target variables . The last chapter forecasts possible factors challenging the effectiveness of monetary policies.
This paper is not confined to mere policy description and qualitative analysis. The conclusion of this paper is based on empirical verification of target variables, by which the effectiveness of monetary polices are evaluated.
Key Words：Monetary Policy, Effectiveness, Causality Test
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