烟台市房地产价格影响因素分析和预测 房地产作为刚需牵动着国民经济的命脉，房地产价格的剧烈波动受到了来自社会各方面的广泛关注，因此研究房地产价格的影响因素对稳定房价尤为重要。本文以烟台市的房地产价格为研究对象，研究影响烟台市商品房销售均价的因素，选取烟台市生产总值、城镇居民年人均可支配收入、年末总人口、贷款基准利率、居民消费水平和房地产开发投资额六个指标，利用EViews软件建立多元线性回归模型，并进行多重共线性检验、异方差检验和序列自相关性检验等，同时进行统计检验修正，然后进行模型拟合和分析。最后研究结果表明：对烟台市商品房销售均价影响较大的是烟台市生产总值和城镇居民年人均可支配收入。建议政府应稳定居民的人均可支配收入，努力发展经济并且净化房地产市场环境等的合理化建议，并进行后续几年房地产价格走势的预测。 关键词：烟台市；房地产价格；影响因素；多元线性分析 Analysis and Forecast of Influence Factors of Real Estate Price in Yantai City ABSTRACT As a rigid demand, real estate affects the lifeblood of the national economy, and the violent fluctuation of real estate prices has been widely concerned by all walks of life, so it is particularly important to study the factors affecting real estate prices to stabilize house prices. Based on the real estate price of yantai city, this paper studies the factors that affect the average selling price of commercial housing in yantai city, selects six indexes of yantai city gross product, annual per capita disposable income of urban residents, year-end total population, loan benchmark interest rate, resident consumption level and real estate development investment amount, establishes multivariate linear regression model by using EViews software, and carries on multiple collinearity test, heteroscedasticity test and sequential autocorrelation test, and carries on statistical test correction,and carries on model fitting and analysis. The results show that the gross domestic product of Yantai and the per capita disposable income of urban residents have a great influence on the average selling price of commercial housing in Yantai. Finally, the government should stabilize the per capita disposable income of residents, strive to develop the economy and purify the real estate market environment, and forecast the trend of real estate prices in the following years. Keywords: Yantai City; Real estate prices; influence factor; Multiple Linear Analysis 目 录 一、引言 1 （一）研究背景 1 （二）研究目的 1 （三）文献综述 2 二、研究方法简介 3 三、多元线性回归模型的构建 4 （一）影响烟台市商品房销售均价的指标选取 4 （二）多元线性回归模型的设定 5 1.解释变量间的相关性分析 5 2.建立初始多元线性回归模型 6 四、多元线性回归模型的检验 7 （一）多重共线性检验 7 （二）异方差检验 8 （三）序列相关性检验 9 五、结论、建议和预测 9 （一）结论 9 （二）建议 10 （三）烟台市房地产价格发展走势 11 参考文献 12
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