我国人口老龄化与经济增长 根据联合国在1956年发布的《人口老龄化及其社会经济后果》划定的标准，一个国家（或地区）的65岁及以上的人口数量达到该国家（地区）的7%时，该国家（地区）即可称为老龄化社会。按照此标准，我国已在2000进入了老龄化社会。本文运用面板数回归模型，以2011至2019年31个省市区65周岁以上老人占总人口的比例为核心变量，以同时期每户平均人口，固定资产投资，失业率水平与国际贸易程度为控制变量，以同时期各省市区的GDP水平为因变量。通过建立回归模型来揭示我国人口老龄化与经济发展之间的相关关系并探究这种关系的原因和可能存在的影响，从而对应对我国未来老龄化程度的加深提供更加实际的社会发展、源分配等方面的建议。 关键词：GDP；老龄化；面板数据；经济增长 Research on the Relationship Between Aging and Economy Growth of China ABSTRACT According to the standards set by the "Population Aging and Its Socio-Economic Consequences" issued by the United Nations in 1956, when the population of a country (or region) aged 65 and over reaches 7% of that country (region), the country (region) can be called an aging society. According to this standard, my country has entered an aging society in 2000. This paper uses a panel data model to take the proportion of elderly people over 65 to the total population in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities from 2011 to 2019 as the core variable, and the average population per household, fixed asset investment, unemployment rate and international trade level during the same period. As the control variable, the GDP level of each province, autonomous region, and municipality in the same period is used as the dependent variable. Establish a regression model to reveal the correlation between my country’s population aging and economic development and explore the reasons and possible effects of this relationship, so as to provide more practical social development and resource allocation to the deepening of my country’s future aging and other suggestions. Keywords: GDP; Aging; Panel Data; Economy Growth 目 录 一、引言 1 （一）研究的理论意义和实用价值 1 （二）文献综述 1 （三）本文主要内容及构成 2 二、基于面板回归模型对我国人口老龄化与经济增长的研究 3 （一）变量与数据说明 3 1. 被解释变量 3 2. 核心解释变量 3 3. 控制变量 3 4. 变量描述统计 3 (二) 实证分析 4 1. 模型的设定与检验 4 2. 模型的选择 5 3. 基准回归 6 4. 稳健性检验 8 5. 异质性检验 9 三、结论与建议 10 （一）结论 10 （二）建议 11 参考文献 12
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