基于Altman-Z模型下我国医药制造行业财务风险的分析与控制
新冠疫情的冲击，我国经济和社会发展遭遇空前危机，各行业的发展受到局限，医药制造行业作为决胜新冠病毒的利刃，复苏疫情带来的经济创伤，将面临着新的发展机遇，机遇与风险并存，财务风险作为企业风险的重要组成部分，在企业的日常管理中有着十分重要的地位，维持企业的平稳发展，就必须加强企业的财务风险管理。
本文以Altman-Z值为工具，分析研究医药制造业的财务风险。样本选取医药制造业上市公司219家企业进行分析，并将其划分为四个子行业，生物制药业，化学制药业，中成药，医疗器械。研究发现，医药制造业在2018年-2020年Z值均值位于8.5以上，远超Z值模型临界值2.675，行业财务状况良好，发生危机的概率低。生物制药业在四个子行业中发展最好，Altman-Z值数据均高于行业水平，其次是医疗器械，财务风险次于生物制药业，2020年发展尤为突出，其Z值均值高于行业水平，再次是化学制药业与中成药，三年内的Z值数据均低于行业平均水平，行业发展状况不理想。鉴于这些情况，对医药制造行业以及子行业提出建议，促使行业实现平稳有序发展。
关键词：医药制造业；财务风险；Z值模型
Abstract
The impact of COVID-19, China's economic and social development encountered unprecedented crisis, the development of various industries is limited, pharmaceutical manufacturing industry as the edge of COVID-19's victory, the economic trauma brought about by the revival of the epidemic will face new opportunities for development, opportunities and risks coexist, and financial risks as an important part of enterprise risk. It plays a very important role in the daily management of enterprises. To maintain the stable development of enterprises, it is necessary to strengthen the financial risk management of enterprises.
This paper uses the Altman-Z value as a tool to analyze and study the financial risks of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. Sample selection of pharmaceutical manufacturing listed companies 219 enterprises for analysis, and divided into four sub-industries, bio pharmaceutical industry, chemical pharmaceutical industry, traditional Chinese medicine, medical devices. The study found that the average Z value of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in 2018-2020 is above 8.5, well above the Z-value model threshold of 2.675, the industry is in good financial position and the probability of crisis is low. Bio pharmaceutical industry in the four sub-sectors of the best development, Altman-Z value data are higher than the industry level, followed by medical devices, financial risks second to the bio pharmaceutical industry, the development of 2020 is particularly prominent, its Z-value mean is higher than the industry level, again the chemical pharmaceutical industry and traditional Chinese medicine, three years of Z-value data are lower than the industry average, the industry development situation is not ideal. In view of these circumstances, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and sub-industry to make recommendations to promote the industry to achieve stable and orderly development.
Keywords: : pharmaceutical manufacturing industry;Financial risk;Z value model
目录
引言 1
一、财务风险及Altman-Z模型相关理论 1
（一）财务风险相关理论 1
1.财务风险的定义 1
2.财务风险的特征 1
（二）Altman-Z模型相关理论 2
1.Altman-Z模型的含义 2
2.Altma-Z模型的功能 2
3.Altman-Z值模型计算公式及评判标准 3
二、我国医药制造业上市公司财务风险的Altman-Z模型分析 3
（一）行业概述 3
（二）医药制造业上市公司财务风险总体分析 4
1.行业分析 4
2.结论 4
（三）医药制造业财务风险分行业分析 5
1.生物制药业 5
2.化学制药业 5
3.中成药 6
4.医疗器械 6
5.结论 6
三、医药制造行业财务风险影响因素分析 7
（一）医药制造行业财务风险影响因素分析 7
（二）医药制造行业各行业财务风险影响因素分析 8
1.生物制药业 8
2.化学制药业 10
3.中成药 12
4.医疗器械 13
四、我国医药制造业上市公司的建议 14
（一）医药制造行业总体建议 14
1.合理配置资源，提高资源使用效率 14
2.加强营运能力管理 14
（二）医药制造行业各行业建议 15
1.科学举债，制定合理的偿债计划 15
2.定位市场，提高企业核心竞争力 15
3.制定合理的税务计划，减少税收支出，减少财政资源风险 15
结束语 16
参考文献 17
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