摘要】浙江省作为我国的外贸大省，出口贸易一直以来都作为衡量经济增长的重要指标之一。本文从浙江省出口贸易的现状出发，分析了出口贸易促进经济增长的机理，通过一些相关指标分析了浙江省出口贸易与经济增长的关系。并基于浙江省1984年-2009年GDP与出口贸易数据的实证分析表明：通过协整检验得出浙江省实际 GDP 和实际出口总额存在着长期稳定的均衡关系；格兰杰因果检验则得出出口增长是经济增长的单向原因。在此结论基础上，提出了浙江省出口贸易实现长期发展的对策建议。【关键词（本论文范文的主要论点）】出口贸易；经济增长；浙江省；实证分析；对策建议 Empirical Analysis of Export Trade Contribution to Economic of Zhejiang Province GrowthAbstract【ABSTRACT】As an important Outward-looking province in China, Zhejiang province's export trade has always been seen as a measure of the indicators of its economic growth. In this paper, from the status of Zhejiang’s export trade, analyzing export trade’s promotion mechanism to the economic growth and through the analysis of a number of related indicators to show relationship between Zhejiang's export trade and economic growth. The empirical analysis based on annual GDP and export trade data of Zhejiang province from 1984 -2009 shows that: Through the co-integration test, there is the total balance and long-term stable relationships between real GDP and real exports of Zhejiang Province; Granger causality test have come to the export growth is the single cause of economic growth. In this conclusion are some countermeasures and proposals in order to achieve the long-term development of Zhejiang’s export trade.【KEYWORDS】export trade; economic growth,; Zhejiang province; empirical analysis; countermeasures and proposals目 录
摘 要 II
Abstract III
目 录 IV
1 浙江省出口贸易现状分析 1
1.1 浙江省出口贸易总额及经济地位 1
1.2 浙江省出口商品结构 2
1.3 浙江省出口贸易主要市场 2
1.4 浙江省主要出口商品 3
1.5 浙江省出口贸易方式 4
2 浙江省出口贸易与经济增长的相关分析 4
2.1 出口贸易促进经济增长的机理分析 4
2.2 浙江省出口贸易与经济增长关系的指标衡量 5
2.2.1 浙江省出口依存度分析 5
2.2.2 浙江省出口贸易对经济增长贡献率分析 6
2.2.3 浙江省出口贸易拉动经济增长百分点分析 6
3 浙江省出口贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析 7
3.1 数据的处理与研究的设计 7
3.2 实证分析 7
3.2.1 单位根检验 7
3.2.2 协整检验 9
3.2.3 格兰杰(Granger)因果检验 9
4 浙江省出口贸易发展存在的问题及对策建议 10
4.1 浙江省出口贸易发展存在的问题 10
4.2 对浙江省出口贸易持续健康发展的对策建议 11
4.2.1 战略层面 11
4.2.2 机制层面 12
5 总结 12
参考文献 14
致谢 15
附录 16
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