素有“北大仓”之说的黑龙江省是我国主要的粮食生产区域之一，长期以来是我国最重要的商品粮食生产基地。保持黑龙江省粮食生产能力对于保证全国粮食生产和保障我国粮食安全战略具有重大意义。但是，由于重开发，轻保护，目前黑龙江省耕种区域不仅面临着严重的生态环境问题，影响了粮食生产能力的提升；同时还面临着粮食需求迅速增加的形势，粮食生产逐渐供不应求。因此，开展黑龙江省粮食生产能力的因素分析十分必要。本文的主要目标是借助黑龙江省第二次全国农业普查数据，通过对影响黑龙江省粮食生产能力的因素进行详细分析，系统研究黑龙江省粮食增产潜力，并提出加强黑龙江省粮食综合生产能力建设的对策建议。本文首先分析了2007年以及2007年以前各年份的黑龙江省粮食生产、波动情况和粮食品种的地区布局及变化趋势。然后从理论上分析了影响我省粮食生产能力的各种因素构成。从黑龙江省粮食生产能力的现状和发展趋势角度出发，通过黑龙江省第二次农业普查数据进行全面分析，运用因子分析方法进行统计分析，从反映影响粮食生产水平的众多指标入手，深入探讨黑龙江省粮食生产能力的现状和与存在的差距和不足，以及未来的发展趋势，并针对这些不足和差距，提出可行性的建设措施
关键词：粮食生产能力；影响因素；因子分析
Heilongjiang Province factor analysis of food production capacity
Abstract
Known as "North warehouse" said China's Heilongjiang Province is the main one of the regions food production, for a long time is our most important commodity grain production bases. Heilongjiang Province to maintain grain production capacity to ensure the protection of the national food production and food security strategy in China is of great significance. However, as the re-development, light protection, the current cultivated area in Heilongjiang Province is not only faced with the serious problem of the ecological environment, the impact of the grain production capacity enhancement; also faced with the rapid increase in grain demand situation, shortage of food production gradually. Therefore, in Heilongjiang Province to carry out factor analysis of food production capacity is necessary. The main objective of this paper is in Heilongjiang Province with the second national agricultural census data, through the impact of food production capacity in Heilongjiang Province to conduct a detailed analysis of the factors, system of food production potential of Heilongjiang Province and Heilongjiang Province, to strengthen the comprehensive grain production capacity-building measures
In this paper, and in 2007 the year of 2007 in Heilongjiang Province of food production,and fluctuations in the regional distribution of food varieties and trends. Then theoretically analyzed the impact of our province's grain production capacity of various factors. Heilongjiang Province, the grain production capacity from the current situation and development trend of the point of view through a second agriculture in Heilongjiang Province to conduct a comprehensive analysis of census data, using factor analysis methods for statistical analysis, to reflect the impact of food production from the large number of indicators of the level of start-depth study of Heilongjiang Province the status of food production capacity and gaps and deficiencies, as well as the development trend of the future, and for these deficiencies and gaps in the construction of the feasibility of measures proposed
Key words: food production capacity; impact factor; factor analysis
目 录
摘 要
Abstract
黑龙江省粮食生产能力的因素分析……………………………………………………….1
1 黑龙江省粮食生产现状…………………………………….……………………………1
1.1 粮食生产能力分析的意义……………………………..………………………………1
1.1.1 粮食生产能力的概述………………………………..……………………………….1
1.1.2 黑龙江省在粮食生产中的战略地位…………………………………………….…..2
1.1.3 黑龙江省粮食生产面临的形势……………………………………………………...2
1.2 黑龙江省粮食作物分类及产量分布…………………………………………………...3
1.2.1 黑龙江省粮食种植情况……………………………………….……………………...3
1.2.2 黑龙江省粮食作物分类…………………………………………………………….4
1.2.3 黑龙江省主要粮食作物的产量分布……………………………………………….4
1.2.4 黑龙江省主要粮食作物的地区分布……………………………………………….8
1.3 黑龙江省区域范围…………………………………………………………………8
1.3.1 黑龙江省粮食种植情况……………………………………………...……………….8
1.3.2 黑龙江省粮食作物分类………………………………………………………………8
2 黑龙江省粮食生产能力的影响因素分析…………………………………...………….10
2.1 要素投入……………………………………………………………………..…………10
2.1.1 劳动力要素………………………………………………………………….………..10
2.1.2 粮食播种面积………………………………………………………………...………12
2.1.3 化肥投入……………………………………………………………………….……..13
2.1.4 农业机械总动力………………………………………………………………...……14
2.2 科技投入………………………………………………………………………………..15
2.2.1农业科技投入概述………………………………………………………………..…..15
2.2.2黑龙江省农业科技投入现状……………………………………………………...….15
2.3 环境要素…………………………………………………………………………….….16
2.3.1天气因素……………………………….……………………………………………...16
2.3.2自然灾害制约对粮食生产的负面影响……………………………………………...16
2.4 资源保障能力…………………………………………………………………………..17
3 黑龙江省粮食生产能力的因子分析……………………………………………………19
3.1 影响粮食生产能力因素的构成……………………………………………………….19
3.2 黑龙江省粮食生产能力的因子分析过程…………………………………………….20
3.2.1 模型选择的依据……………………………………………………………………...20
3.2.2 模型的计算…………………………………………………………………………...21
4提高黑龙江省粮食生产能力的合理化建议…………………………………………..25
4.1普及实用技术，提高粮食种植技术效率……………………………………………….25
4.2强化技术培训，增强种粮农民素质…………………………………………………….25
4.3创新多种服务模式，提高种粮机械化水平…………………………………………….26
4.4合理施肥，提高耕地质量………………………………………………………………26
结 论…………………………………………………………………………………28
参考文献
致 谢
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