近年来，中国的微型汽车业快速增长，不仅成为汽车行业中增长速度最快的车种之一，而且成为汽车生产和消费市场的重要拉动力量和生力军。我国微型车市场主要有上汽通用五菱、长安、哈飞、昌河四个主要品牌，从2005年开始，上汽通用五菱和长安迅猛发展，2007年上汽通用五菱和长安的微型汽车市场占有率之和已超过70%，哈飞的销量近年来连续下滑，到2008年7月，哈飞的市场占有率已下降到13%左右。本论文就是基于上述情况，首先根据国内微型汽车市场的发展概况做了简单的叙述，在对微型汽车了解的基础上，重点分析了哈飞微型汽车的市场竞争态势。在微型汽车市场竞争日益激烈的环境下，对哈飞集团的微型轿车、微型客车、微型货车分别进行了有效地市场细分与产品定位。并借助霍特双参数模型以及统计预测与决策的思想预测了2009年哈飞微型汽车销售量。最后针对哈飞微型汽车在市场竞争中占有率下降的问题，提出了相应的对策及建议，以提高哈飞汽车在国内外微型汽车市场中的竞争力，更好的发展自主品牌。
关键词：微型汽车；竞争态势；市场预测
Hafei micro-car market analysis and forecast
Abstract
In recent years, the micro-car industry in china is growing fast. The automotive industry has not only become the fastest growing one of the vehicles, but also vehicle production and consumption has become an important driving force in the market and force.
Micro-car market in China mainly include SAIC-GM-Wuling, Chang'an, Hafei, Changhe four main brands. Starting in 2005, the rapid development of SAIC-GM-Wuling and Chang'an, and SAIC-GM-Wuling and Chang'an micro market share of motor vehicle has more than 70% in 2007, Hafei consecutive decline in sales in recent years, and in July 2008, Hafei's market share had dropped to about 13%.
This paper is based on the above, firstly micro-car market in accordance with national development of a brief description, in the understanding of the micro-car, based on an analysis of key micro-car market Hafei competition. In an increasingly competitive environment of micro-car market, micro-cars, mini buses and mini trucks of Hafei Group, respectively, have effective market segmentation and product positioning. And two-parameter model with holt and statistical prediction of thinking and decision-making in 2009 predicted the mini-car sales Hafei. Finally, micro-car for Hafei competition in the market share is dropping, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to improve the Hafei micro-car market at home and abroad competitiveness, and better development of their own brands.
Key words: Micro-car; Competition; Market Forecast
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