中国碳排放预测研究
摘 要
当今，全球气候变暖是人类共同面对着一个严峻的问题，碳排放问题也受到越来越多的关注，对碳排放的分析和预测也越来越重要。
本文针对中国碳排放的现状和预测的问题，采用了文献资料分析、图表数据对比分析、时间序列模型分析、情景模型分析等方法进行了研究，工作具体如下：
(1)通过文献资料分析、图表数据对比分析等方法分析和研究中国碳排放和世界主要碳排放的区别与联系;分析中国碳排放特征，最后得出中国碳排的重要意义；
(2)通过时间序列模型分析、情景模型分析等方法并结合搜集的大量资料对中国的未来碳排放进行预测，对预测的结果进行分析得出中国碳排放目前面临的形势比较严峻和中国的碳排放总量在未来一段时期呈现较快的速度增长这一结论；
(3)提出中国减少碳排放应该采取的一些措施及中国将来在发展低碳经济的一些政策建议。
关键词 碳排放；情景分析；时间序列预测法；政策建议；中国
Abstract
Today, Global warming is a serious porblem for the human beings, carbon emissions also will get more and more attention, the analysis and the forecast of the carbon emissions will be more important.
Face to the situation of China carbon emissions and the problem of the forecast, this artile will use the methods of Documentation Comparative Analysis、Chart and data Comparative Analysis、T ARIMA Modle Analysis、Scenario Analysis to analysis and study, job as：
(1) this artile will analysis the differences and relationships between Chinese carbon emission and the main carbon emission countries, then , will analysis the Chinese carbonemissions feature, finally, come to a conclusion of the importance of China emissions by using the methods of Documentation Comparative Analysis and Chart and data Comparative Analysis.
(2) this artile will use the methods of ARIMA Modle Analysis、Scenario Analysis and combine a large number of materials of searching to forecast the Chinese total carbon emissions, then, to analysis the result and come to a conclusion that Chinese cartbon emissions will face a serious situation and will keep a fast increas speed in a time in future.
(3) the artile will give some measures taked by China to reduce the carbon emissions and give some advices of China developing the low-carbon economy in the future.
Key words Carbon Emissions；Scenario Analysis；ARIMA Modle Analysis；Policy Recommendations；China
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