汇改后人民币汇率形成机制研究

摘要
 在国际市场上，围绕人民币汇率的争论长期存在。为了更好地了解人民币汇率问题，本文对现行人民币汇率制度进行了深入探讨。2005年7月21日起至今，我国实行的是以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，即目前人民币汇率的形成由货币篮子以及市场供求两方面决定。本文首先简要介绍了汇率形成机制及汇改以来人民币汇率的波动情况；然后分别从一篮子货币汇率制度与市场供求关系两个方面进行详细分析：在介绍一篮子货币汇率形成机制部分，应用J.P.摩根的货币权重模型，模拟出2005年至2010年人民币的货币篮子，指出在参考一篮子货币的制度下，人民币汇率波动的特点，说明人民币汇率的变动将更具有弹性，有助于人民币摆脱美元长期贬值的束缚，实现人民币的渐进性升值；在介绍市场供求关系部分，先对外汇市场上的交易动机进行分类，并分别说明其对供求关系的影响，再根据我国国际收支平衡表具体分析了人民币的供求关系，认为人民币存在着较大的升值压力，但目前我国并不具备牢靠的升值基础，因此应在中央银行的管理下实行渐进的升值；文章最后进行了对两部分的总结。
关键词：人民币汇率制度   一篮子货币   市场供求
Abstract
 In the international market, the debate on RMB exchange rate is a long-standing problem. In order to a better understand on this problem, the current system of RMB exchange rate was discussed in this paper. From 2005 July 21 to now, China implemented an exchange rate system with manageable floating in which exchange rates are based on market demand and supply, referencing to a basket of currencies. In this article, we first introduce the current system and describe the fluctuation of the exchange rate since the inception of current system. Then the article explored the two parts in this system, the basket of currencies and the market. In the part of the basket of currencies, applying the J.P. Morgan’s model to calculate the weight of every currency in RMB’s basket, this article pointed out the fact that in the system of a basket of currencies, the RMB exchange rate fluctuations would be more flexible and RMB now need to appreciate gradually. In the part of the market, this paper makes a list of reasons that may change the supply and demand in the monetary market, and analysis the market of RMB through studying the balance sheet. At the end, this paper made a conclusion on both part.
Key word: The RMB Exchange Rate System    the Basket of Currencies    Market

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