加息对抑制房价的作用研究The effectiveness of increasing interest rate to restrain house price
加息对抑制房价的作用研究The effectiveness of increasing interest rate to restrain house price
摘 要
房地产作为我国经济的支柱型产业，对我国近十年来的GDP增长起了关键作用，其健康与稳定的发展是我国经济发展中必须的保障因素。我国房地产价格在21世纪的飞速上涨因素不仅仅是居民收入的增加，但其上涨势头已超过消费者可承受的能力。长期以来宏观经济中实际利率低于或者是负利率导致了房价的过快上涨，使得我国房地产行业的发展陷入畸形，房价调控成了迫在眉睫的政府工作。而面对从2007年开始的一年6次加息，到2010年重启加息周期，似乎加息对于抑制房价收效甚微，房价的居高不下，市场的供需失衡，都引起了中国国民的广泛关注。在本篇论文中，我讲主要先理论上论述作为主要货币工具的利率与房地产价格之间的关系，然后通过分析21世纪以来我国的利率调控对于房价的影响，并通过实证经验得出结论，得出中国房地产市场利率对于房地产价格呈正相关影响，并且分析正相关的原因以及在负利率时代是否应该加大加息力度并配合一系列其他货币政策措施，多方其下使房价下降，让居民买得起房。
关键词：利率，通货膨胀，货币政策，房价，负利率，需求和供给分析，实证分析
Abstract
Real estate is one important pillar industry of our national economy, It’s healthy and orderly development is critical to the stability of our macro economy. Chinese real estate prices soaring do have the factor of revenue growth, but so far the increases have been far beyond the scope of the discussion of revenue growth, largely depends on the level of real interest rate in economy. In economy, the figure of real interest rate is low or even negative in a long term that is the important reason for its continued rise. Since the nineties of twentieth century, the Chinese government has been committed to promoting macro financial control from direct control to indirect regulation, which not only improves the initiative and effectiveness of monetary policy, but also create a good condition to the development of financial markets. Among the control measures which have taken, monetary policy is always as an important tool for central bank to control our macro economy, and the impact of various initiatives is worth the concern of real estate industry. The overall macro-control is a common way of monetary policy, and the useful way is the intermediate objectives of money supply and interest rates. At the same time, along with the quickening pace of china’s opening up and improvement of market-oriented interest rates, the influence of interest rates as a control lever of real estate investment is necessary to be reviewed. In this paper, I may foucs to discuss one monetary policy, interest rate, and I will demonstrate the theory of relationship between interest rate and real estate price, meanwhile, I will use lots of empirical example to explain how real estate prices change with the interest rate. At last, I will give my own conclusion based on empirical research and give my own advice to this controversial topic.
Key words: interest rate, inflation, money policy, real estate prices, negative interest rates, demand and supply analysis, empirical analysis
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