工程建设项目施工风险管理研究—以沪昆铁路xx隧道工程为例

摘    要
 伴随着国民经济的高速增长和社会主义现代化建设的加快，我国工程项目的数量越来越多，规模也越来越大。同时，瞬息万变的社会环境又给工程项目带来了更多的不确定性因素，即存在不确定性和风险性的问题，其管理相当复杂。由此产生的项目风险与日俱增，风险带来的损失也越来越严重，从而对包括业主和承包商在内的各参与方造成直接或间接损失。因此，开展对工程项目施工阶段的风险评估和风险管理的研究，对于加强工程项目施工风险管理和及时防范和化解工程项目风险具有重要的现实意义。
本文以沪昆铁路姚家隧道工程为例，对该工程项目施工阶段的风险进行了识别，利用层次分析法（AHP）对项目的风险进行了分析和评价，并提出相应可行的风险应对策略，以便将风险转化为机会或降到最低限度。

    关键词：工程项目；风险管理；姚家隧道；层次分析法（AHP）

Abstract
Along with the high-speed economic growth and the acceleration of socialist modernization, there are more and more projects in China, and the scale of projects are becoming ever larger. Meanwhile, the ever-changing social environment and gave the project the more uncertainties, the uncertainty and risk, its management is quite complex. The resulting project risks increasing the risk of losses caused by more and more serious, resulting in direct or indirect loss to the parties involved, including owners and contractors. Therefore, to carry out the construction phase of the project risk assessment and risk management, strengthen the work on the project risk management and in a timely manner to prevent and defuse the risk of the project has important practical significance.

In this paper, the Shanghai-Kunming Railway Yaojia tunnel engineering, for example, the risk of the construction phase of the project identification, project risk analysis and evaluation using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the corresponding feasible risk response strategies, to risks into opportunities or to a minimum.

Keywords：project; risk management; Yaojia tunnel; Analytic Hierarchy Process

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