人民币汇率升值及其路径的选择

内容摘要：2005年汇率改革以来，人民币汇率经历了显著地升值过程，并有不断升值的趋势。人民币汇率的升值主要受我国经济发展、国际收支、中美利差、外汇市场供求以及国际政治等因素的综合影响。对于升值路径的选择，国内专家学者持有两方面的观点，即人民币小幅渐进升值和大幅一次性升值。本文将结合案例探讨这两种升值路径的优劣，并分析哪一种升值路径更适合我国经济的发展。汇率升值是经济发展的必然趋势，国际上有多个国家经历了汇率升值过程，本文将借鉴德国马克和日本日元汇率升值的国际经验，得出对我国人民币汇率升值路径选择的有益启示。我国人民币汇率升值路径选择要适合我国目前的经济发展状况，要符合我国的具体国情，只有这样才能真正有利于我国经济的快速发展。人民币升值过程中须实施相关的配套措施，以避免汇率升值过程中的不利因素，以保证我国经济的迅速平稳发展。

关键词：人民币升值，小幅渐进升值，路径选择
Appreciation of the RMB Exchange Rate
and its Path Selection
Abstract：Since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB exchange rate has experienced a significant appreciation, and has a trend of increasing appreciation. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the combined effects of China's economic development, balance of payments, U.S. interest rate, foreign exchange market supply and demand, and international political. For the choice of the path of the appreciation, domestic experts and scholars hold two aspects of the view that the yuan is slightly gradual appreciation and substantial one-off appreciation. This paper will combine the case to explore the pros and cons of the two paths of the appreciation, and analyze what kind of the path of appreciation is more suitable for China's economic development. The exchange rate is an inevitable trend of economic development, and lots of countries international have experienced the process of exchange rate appreciation. This article will draw on some useful insights on the select of China's RMB exchange rate path by learn from the international experience of the exchange rate appreciation of German mark and Japanese yen. The choose of the path of China's RMB exchange rate should fit our Specific conditions which consistent with China's specific conditions. RMB appreciation of the process required to implement the relevant supporting measures to avoid the unfavorable factors in the process of exchange rate appreciation which for the rapid and stable development of China's economic.
Key words：Appreciation of the RMB，Slight Gradual Appreciation，Path Selection

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