美国货币政策对中国产出溢出效应的分析

摘  要
   
随着经济全球化进程的迅速发展和不断推进，各国货币政策的相互影响也日益加深，尤其是经济大国的货币政策调整所带来的国际影响越来越明显。中国经济开放水平不断提升，促进了中国经济的快速增长，但是也带来了一些不稳定因素，如外国的货币政策冲击。货币政策的国际传导和溢出效应是一个存在争论的研究课题，许多学者对货币政策的国际传导和溢出效应进行了广泛的研究，但是这些研究并没有消除对这一问题的争论。
    本文对美国货币政策对中国产出的溢出效应进行理论分析和实证分析。分析结果表明，美国货币政策的调整对中国产出存在溢出效应，扩张性的美国货币政策对中国产出的影响也是扩张性的。这种溢出效应一方面通过贸易渠道传导，以支出转换和收入吸收两种效应影响中国的贸易收支，进而影响中国产出；另一方面通过资产价格渠道传导，以国际资本流动和投资者预期心理的变动影响到中国的资产价格，进而作用于中国产出。
    通过理论分析和实证检验，理论分析得到了货币政策溢出效应的存在性，而实证分析表明，扩张性的美国货币政策对中国产出有正向的溢出效应。结合中国当前的经济状况，本文提出了在相应的政策建议，包括促进出口市场结构的多元化、改善外贸进出口结构、扩大内需；促进资本市场和金融体系的完善；做好信息披露，倡导理性的投资行为，减少心理预期因素产生的不良影响等等。

关键词：美国货币政策； 中国产出； 溢出效应； 贸易； 资本流动

ABSTRACT

With the constantly development of economic globalization, the mutual influence of monetary policy is deepening, Especially the international influence brought by the monetary policy adjustment of economic powers is more and more apparent .The continuous improvement of china's economic openness level promoted the rapid growth of China's economy, but also brought some unstable factors, such as external Monetary policy shocks. The international transmission and the spillover effects of monetary policy have long been discussed, many researchers have done extensive studies on this subject, however, these researches have not resolved the ambiguity.
This paper makes theoretical analysis and empirical analysis on U.S. monetary policy spillover effects on China's output .Analysis results show that the influence of expansionary US monetary policy to China's output is Positive. On one hand, these spillover effects are transmitted by trade channel, the shocks will influence China's trade balance, and thus China's output through the expenditure switch effects and the income absorption effects. On the other hand, these spillover effects are transmitted by assets price channel, the adjustment of the international capital flow and the expectation of investors caused by US monetary shift would have some impacts on China's assets price, which will affect China's output .
With the theoretical analysis and empirical test , we know the existence of spillover effects of monetary policy and that the influence of expansionary US monetary policy to China's output is Positive .Considering China's current economic conditions ,this paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions, including making structure of export market diversified, improving import and export structure, expanding domestic demand, consummating the capital market and the financial system, making good at information disclosure, advocating rational investment behavior, reducing adverse effects of expectations and so on.

Keywords: US monetary policy; China's output; Spillover effects; Trade; Capital flow

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