我国照相机销量的时间序列分析

照相机简称相机，是一种利用光学成像原理形成影像并使用底片记录该影像的设备。很多可以记录影像的设备都具备照相机的特征，比如医学成像设备、天文观测设备等等。照相机是用于摄影的光学器械。被摄景物反射出的光线通过照相镜头（摄景物镜）和控制曝光量的快门聚焦后，被摄景物在暗箱内的感光材料上形成潜像，经冲洗处理（即显影、定影）构成永久性的影响，这种技术称为摄影术。
随着我国经济的发展，人们对于照相的需求也越来越高，但同时由于具备照相功能的设备比如手机的普及性也越来越广，照相机的地位有可能会被撼动。但是从数据上来看，照相机的销售额仍在逐年上涨，很有市场潜力。因此我们可以通过对照相机销售额的分析来帮助完成预测销售额，工厂也可以用我们的预测结果来安排生产计划以及销售计划。
本文主要应用的是时间序列的分析方法，通过R软件对数据进行剔除周期性、平稳性检验、模型定阶以及模型检验来完成数据的分析并最终得出销售额关于季度的模型。

关键词：照相机；销售额；时间序列

Abstract

   The camera is a kind of equipment which uses the principle of optical imaging to form the image and records the image using the negative. Many devices that can record images have the characteristics of cameras, such as medical imaging equipment, astronomical observation equipment, and so on. A camera is an optical device used in photography. The reflected light of scene photographed focuses through the camera lens (perturbation scene lens) and control of exposure amount of shutter, the scene forms a latent image on camera obscura light-sensitive material, and after rinse processing (i.e. developing and fixing) constitutes a permanent effect. This technique is known as photography.
    With the development of Chinese economy, people are also having higher and higher demand for the camera. At the same time with the using of equipment with camera function such as mobile phone, is more and more widely, camera's position may will be shaked. But from the data point of view, the sales of camera are still rising year by year with a great market potential. So we can use the analysis of the sale of camera to help complete the forecast sales. The factory can also use our prediction results to arrange production plans and sales plans.
   This paper uses analysis method of time series mainly, completes the analysis of the data and finally draws a quarter of sales model through the SPSS software for data to eliminate periodic and stationary test, model set order and model checking to .

Key words: Camera, Cale, Time series

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