从实证角度分析A股市场经济晴雨表的相关问题

本文通过模型的建立从实证角度探究了A股市场经济晴雨表的相关问题。股票市场与经济发展之间存在着相辅相成的联动性关系。经济的快速增长能够促进产业的发展，增加人们的可支配收入，刺激投资和消费需求，从而带动股市的快速增长。股市的完善能够优化资源配置，提高资本利用率，从而优化产业结构，促进经济的稳定持续性发展。股票市场发展越完善，市场化程度越高，就越能充分发挥促进经济发展的作用。因此，从理论上来说，股市作为经济的先行指标，起着“经济晴雨表”的作用。
本文的主要内容分为三部分。第一部分是数据的收集和整理，第二部分是通过建立线性回归模型探讨A股市场“经济晴雨表”功能的实效性及相关衍生问题，第三部分是结论和建议。
关键词：A股市场，经济晴雨表，线性回归模型

ABSTRACT

This article is aimed to explore the effectiveness of stock market’s function of the barometer of the whole economy through the establishment of the model from an empirical point of view. The relationship between the stock market and the development of the economy is mutually reinforcing: on one hand, rapid economic growth contributes to the development of the industry, to the sharp increase in people’s disposable income so as to stimulate investment and consumption demand, which leads to the rapid growth of the stock market; on the other hand, the more perfect the stock market has developed, the more effectively it helps to optimize the allocation of resources so as to improve capital utilization, which helps to optimize the industrial structure and to promote the sustainable development of economic. The more complete the development of the stock market is, the higher the degree of its marketization, the more they can give full play to the role of promoting economic development. Therefore, in theory, the stock market as a leading indicator of the whole economy plays a role of “economic barometer”.
The whole article is constituted of three main parts. The first part is the collection and collation of data, the second part mainly discusses the effectiveness of stock market’s role of “economic barometer” and other derivative questions by the establishment of several linear regression models, and the last part is conclusion and recommendation.
Key words: stock market, economic barometer, linear regression model

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