气候变化引起了各国的广泛关注,全球气候持续变暖导致海平面上升、生态环境恶化、台风肆虐、热浪频繁、干旱洪涝此起彼伏。在中国，气候变化所引起的后果也十分严重，每年受干旱、暴雨洪涝、台风等气象灾害影响的人口约6亿人次，经济损失占GDP的1%~3%;每年因气象灾害使农田受灾达5亿多亩。2006年气象灾害的直接经济损失为2516.9亿元，为1998年以来又一次重灾年。2008年年初，蔓延整个华北地区的干旱也对粮食生产造成了重大影响。本文基于中国中央气象局、滨州气象局、地面观测站（惠民台站54725）以及文献历史数据，对滨州市区域气候数据进行概括、分析处理，应用统计方法，分析了近50年气候变化特征。研究结果表明：滨州市的气候变化与全球气候变化方向基本一致，气温有上升的趋势，极端天气出现的可能性增强。
关键词：气候变化；滨州；预警预报
Binzhou climate change and warning forecast
Abstract
Climate change caused extensive concern of the world, global climate warming continues rising sea levels, worsening ecological environment, typhoon, drought and heatwaves across frequent flooding. In China, the consequences caused by climate change is also very serious, the population with trouble of the drought, flood and typhoon meteorological disasters is about six billion , economic loss of 1% to 3% of GDP. Every year the meteorological disasters come to 5 million farmland. In 2006, the direct economic losses of meteorological disasters are 2516.9 billion yuan, it’s a big disaster year since 1998. In early 2008, drought spread all over the north area of grain production caused a great influence. This thesis is based on China's central weather bureau,Binzhou meteorology, ground observatory (Huimin stations No.54725) and literature history data of Binzhou region climate data analysis and processing, and it summarized the application of statistical method, analyzes the characteristics of climate change in the last fifty years. Research results indicate that: The width of Binzhou region climate change and climate change direction is the same as the global, temperature is rising, and so is the possibility of extreme weather.
Key words: climate change；Binzhou; prediction，forecast and early warning.
